Blackjack Card Counting Simulator

Convert running count to true count, estimate edge, and size bets with a Kelly-based bankroll rule.

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What This Calculator Does

This calculator converts a running count into a true count, estimates the corresponding player edge under a simple Hi-Lo approximation, and maps that edge into a Kelly-style bankroll fraction. It is meant for practice and bankroll discipline, not for replacing full table conditions.

It combines Running Count, Decks Remaining, Bankroll, Base Betting Unit to estimate True Count, Estimated Player Edge, Kelly Fraction.

Formula & Method

Core equations:

TC=\frac{RC}{\text{decks remaining}}

. A common Hi-Lo approximation uses player edge

\approx -0.5\% + 0.5\%\cdot TC

. Full Kelly bankroll fraction is approximately

f^*=\frac{edge}{variance}

using blackjack hand variance around 1.3.

Notation used in the formulas: $R$ = True Count; $x_{1}$ = Running Count; $x_{2}$ = Decks Remaining; $x_{3}$ = Bankroll; $x_{4}$ = Base Betting Unit; $x_{5}$ = Table Minimum; $x_{6}$ = Table Maximum.

Method summary: inputs are normalized to consistent units, core equations are evaluated, then secondary values are derived and rounded for display.

Use it when reviewing count conversion, sizing bets from an estimated advantage, or stress-testing whether a true count justifies moving above the table minimum.

Reference Book

Games, Gambling, and Probability

An Introduction to Mathematics

David G. Taylor · Chapman and Hall/CRC

A natural reference for odds, card draws, poker-style counting, gambling expectations, and game probability.

View Book

Inputs Used

Running Count: Used directly in the calculation.
Decks Remaining: Used directly in the calculation.
Bankroll: Used directly in the calculation.
Base Betting Unit: Used directly in the calculation.
Table Minimum: Used directly in the calculation.
Table Maximum: Used directly in the calculation.

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